Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.
Identifieur interne : 001018 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001017; suivant : 001019Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.
Auteurs : Ramy Abou Ghayda [États-Unis] ; Keum Hwa Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Young Joo Han [Corée du Sud] ; Seohyun Ryu [Corée du Sud] ; Sung Hwi Hong [Corée du Sud] ; Sojung Yoon [Corée du Sud] ; Gwang Hun Jeong [Corée du Sud] ; Jinhee Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Jun Young Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Jae Won Yang [Corée du Sud] ; Maria Effenberger [Autriche] ; Michael Eisenhut [Royaume-Uni] ; Andreas Kronbichler [Autriche] ; Marco Solmi [Italie] ; Han Li [États-Unis] ; Louis Jacob [Espagne] ; Ai Koyanagi [Espagne] ; Joaquim Radua [Suède] ; Jae Il Shinc [Corée du Sud] ; Lee Smith [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, the estimation of the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time.
METHODS
A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on the results, we performed a meta-analysis for global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed on two different calculations of CFR: according to calendar date and according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis.
RESULTS
For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses, according to calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case were different.
CONCLUSION
We propose that CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.065
PubMed: 32882434
PubMed Central: PMC7462556
Affiliations:
- Autriche, Corée du Sud, Espagne, Italie, Royaume-Uni, Suède, États-Unis
- Catalogne, Massachusetts, Région capitale de Séoul, Svealand
- Barcelone, Stockholm, Séoul
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Urology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Keum Hwa" sort="Lee, Keum Hwa" uniqKey="Lee K" first="Keum Hwa" last="Lee">Keum Hwa Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Han, Young Joo" sort="Han, Young Joo" uniqKey="Han Y" first="Young Joo" last="Han">Young Joo Han</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changwon</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ryu, Seohyun" sort="Ryu, Seohyun" uniqKey="Ryu S" first="Seohyun" last="Ryu">Seohyun Ryu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Sung Hwi" sort="Hong, Sung Hwi" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Sung Hwi" last="Hong">Sung Hwi Hong</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoon, Sojung" sort="Yoon, Sojung" uniqKey="Yoon S" first="Sojung" last="Yoon">Sojung Yoon</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jeong, Gwang Hun" sort="Jeong, Gwang Hun" uniqKey="Jeong G" first="Gwang Hun" last="Jeong">Gwang Hun Jeong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Jinju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Jinhee" sort="Lee, Jinhee" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jinhee" last="Lee">Jinhee Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Psychiatry, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Psychiatry, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wonju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Jun Young" sort="Lee, Jun Young" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jun Young" last="Lee">Jun Young Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wonju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Jae Won" sort="Yang, Jae Won" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jae Won" last="Yang">Jae Won Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wonju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Effenberger, Maria" sort="Effenberger, Maria" uniqKey="Effenberger M" first="Maria" last="Effenberger">Maria Effenberger</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Innsbruck</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eisenhut, Michael" sort="Eisenhut, Michael" uniqKey="Eisenhut M" first="Michael" last="Eisenhut">Michael Eisenhut</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Luton & Dunstable University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Luton, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Luton & Dunstable University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Luton</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Luton</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kronbichler, Andreas" sort="Kronbichler, Andreas" uniqKey="Kronbichler A" first="Andreas" last="Kronbichler">Andreas Kronbichler</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine IV, Nephrology and Hypertension, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Internal Medicine IV, Nephrology and Hypertension, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Innsbruck</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Solmi, Marco" sort="Solmi, Marco" uniqKey="Solmi M" first="Marco" last="Solmi">Marco Solmi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Neurosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, Italy; Padua Neuroscience Center, Padua, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Neurosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, Italy; Padua Neuroscience Center, Padua</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Padua</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Han" sort="Li, Han" uniqKey="Li H" first="Han" last="Li">Han Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, 32610</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>32610</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jacob, Louis" sort="Jacob, Louis" uniqKey="Jacob L" first="Louis" last="Jacob">Louis Jacob</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, 78180, Versailles, France; Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, 78180, Versailles, France; Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Barcelone</settlement><region nuts="2" type="region">Catalogne</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Koyanagi, Ai" sort="Koyanagi, Ai" uniqKey="Koyanagi A" first="Ai" last="Koyanagi">Ai Koyanagi</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Barcelone</settlement><region nuts="2" type="region">Catalogne</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Radua, Joaquim" sort="Radua, Joaquim" uniqKey="Radua J" first="Joaquim" last="Radua">Joaquim Radua</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), 08036, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, E5 8AF, UK; Centre for Psychiatric Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, 113 30, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), 08036, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, E5 8AF, UK; Centre for Psychiatric Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, 113 30, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement><region nuts="2">Svealand</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shinc, Jae Il" sort="Shinc, Jae Il" uniqKey="Shinc J" first="Jae Il" last="Shinc">Jae Il Shinc</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: shinji@yuhs.ac.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Lee" sort="Smith, Lee" uniqKey="Smith L" first="Lee" last="Smith">Lee Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The Cambridge Centre for Sport and Exercise Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, CB1 1PT, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>The Cambridge Centre for Sport and Exercise Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, CB1 1PT</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>CB1 1PT</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32882434</idno><idno type="pmid">32882434</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.065</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7462556</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000242</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000242</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000242</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000242</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000242</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.</title><author><name sortKey="Abou Ghayda, Ramy" sort="Abou Ghayda, Ramy" uniqKey="Abou Ghayda R" first="Ramy" last="Abou Ghayda">Ramy Abou Ghayda</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Urology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Urology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Keum Hwa" sort="Lee, Keum Hwa" uniqKey="Lee K" first="Keum Hwa" last="Lee">Keum Hwa Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Han, Young Joo" sort="Han, Young Joo" uniqKey="Han Y" first="Young Joo" last="Han">Young Joo Han</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Changwon</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ryu, Seohyun" sort="Ryu, Seohyun" uniqKey="Ryu S" first="Seohyun" last="Ryu">Seohyun Ryu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Sung Hwi" sort="Hong, Sung Hwi" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Sung Hwi" last="Hong">Sung Hwi Hong</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoon, Sojung" sort="Yoon, Sojung" uniqKey="Yoon S" first="Sojung" last="Yoon">Sojung Yoon</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jeong, Gwang Hun" sort="Jeong, Gwang Hun" uniqKey="Jeong G" first="Gwang Hun" last="Jeong">Gwang Hun Jeong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Jinju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Jinhee" sort="Lee, Jinhee" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jinhee" last="Lee">Jinhee Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Psychiatry, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Psychiatry, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wonju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Jun Young" sort="Lee, Jun Young" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jun Young" last="Lee">Jun Young Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wonju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Jae Won" sort="Yang, Jae Won" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jae Won" last="Yang">Jae Won Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Wonju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Effenberger, Maria" sort="Effenberger, Maria" uniqKey="Effenberger M" first="Maria" last="Effenberger">Maria Effenberger</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Innsbruck</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eisenhut, Michael" sort="Eisenhut, Michael" uniqKey="Eisenhut M" first="Michael" last="Eisenhut">Michael Eisenhut</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Luton & Dunstable University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Luton, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Luton & Dunstable University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Luton</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Luton</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kronbichler, Andreas" sort="Kronbichler, Andreas" uniqKey="Kronbichler A" first="Andreas" last="Kronbichler">Andreas Kronbichler</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine IV, Nephrology and Hypertension, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Autriche</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Internal Medicine IV, Nephrology and Hypertension, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Innsbruck</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Solmi, Marco" sort="Solmi, Marco" uniqKey="Solmi M" first="Marco" last="Solmi">Marco Solmi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Neurosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, Italy; Padua Neuroscience Center, Padua, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Neurosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, Italy; Padua Neuroscience Center, Padua</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Padua</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Han" sort="Li, Han" uniqKey="Li H" first="Han" last="Li">Han Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, 32610</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>32610</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jacob, Louis" sort="Jacob, Louis" uniqKey="Jacob L" first="Louis" last="Jacob">Louis Jacob</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, 78180, Versailles, France; Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, 78180, Versailles, France; Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Barcelone</settlement><region nuts="2" type="region">Catalogne</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Koyanagi, Ai" sort="Koyanagi, Ai" uniqKey="Koyanagi A" first="Ai" last="Koyanagi">Ai Koyanagi</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Barcelone</settlement><region nuts="2" type="region">Catalogne</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Radua, Joaquim" sort="Radua, Joaquim" uniqKey="Radua J" first="Joaquim" last="Radua">Joaquim Radua</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), 08036, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, E5 8AF, UK; Centre for Psychiatric Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, 113 30, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), 08036, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, E5 8AF, UK; Centre for Psychiatric Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, 113 30, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement><region nuts="2">Svealand</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shinc, Jae Il" sort="Shinc, Jae Il" uniqKey="Shinc J" first="Jae Il" last="Shinc">Jae Il Shinc</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: shinji@yuhs.ac.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Lee" sort="Smith, Lee" uniqKey="Smith L" first="Lee" last="Smith">Lee Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The Cambridge Centre for Sport and Exercise Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, CB1 1PT, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>The Cambridge Centre for Sport and Exercise Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, CB1 1PT</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>CB1 1PT</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>OBJECTIVE</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, the estimation of the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on the results, we performed a meta-analysis for global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed on two different calculations of CFR: according to calendar date and according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses, according to calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case were different.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>We propose that CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32882434</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>09</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-3511</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Aug</Month><Day>31</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int. J. Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1201-9712(20)30694-9</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.065</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVE" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, the estimation of the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on the results, we performed a meta-analysis for global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed on two different calculations of CFR: according to calendar date and according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses, according to calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case were different.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">We propose that CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Abou Ghayda</LastName><ForeName>Ramy</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Urology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lee</LastName><ForeName>Keum Hwa</ForeName><Initials>KH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Han</LastName><ForeName>Young Joo</ForeName><Initials>YJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ryu</LastName><ForeName>Seohyun</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hong</LastName><ForeName>Sung Hwi</ForeName><Initials>SH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yoon</LastName><ForeName>Sojung</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jeong</LastName><ForeName>Gwang Hun</ForeName><Initials>GH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lee</LastName><ForeName>Jinhee</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Psychiatry, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lee</LastName><ForeName>Jun Young</ForeName><Initials>JY</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Jae Won</ForeName><Initials>JW</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Nephrology, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Effenberger</LastName><ForeName>Maria</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Endocrinology & Metabolism, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Eisenhut</LastName><ForeName>Michael</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Luton & Dunstable University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Luton, United Kingdom.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kronbichler</LastName><ForeName>Andreas</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine IV, Nephrology and Hypertension, Medical University Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Solmi</LastName><ForeName>Marco</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Neurosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, Italy; Padua Neuroscience Center, Padua, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Han</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jacob</LastName><ForeName>Louis</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, 78180, Versailles, France; Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Koyanagi</LastName><ForeName>Ai</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Dr. Antoni Pujadas, 42, Sant Boi de Llobregat, 08830, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Radua</LastName><ForeName>Joaquim</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), 08036, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, E5 8AF, UK; Centre for Psychiatric Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, 113 30, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shinc</LastName><ForeName>Jae Il</ForeName><Initials>JI</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Pediatrics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: shinji@yuhs.ac.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Smith</LastName><ForeName>Lee</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The Cambridge Centre for Sport and Exercise Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, CB1 1PT, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>31</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Canada</Country><MedlineTA>Int J Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9610933</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1201-9712</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">calendar date</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">case fatality rate</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">days since first confirmed case</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">proportion meta-analysis</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>22</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32882434</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S1201-9712(20)30694-9</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.065</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7462556</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;20(7):774-775</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32243815</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Swiss Med Wkly. 2020 Feb 07;150:w20203</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32031234</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;20(7):773</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32171390</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Ann Transl Med. 2020 Feb;8(4):128</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32175421</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2003 May 24;361(9371):1761-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId 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sortKey="Lee, Keum Hwa" sort="Lee, Keum Hwa" uniqKey="Lee K" first="Keum Hwa" last="Lee">Keum Hwa Lee</name></region><name sortKey="Han, Young Joo" sort="Han, Young Joo" uniqKey="Han Y" first="Young Joo" last="Han">Young Joo Han</name><name sortKey="Hong, Sung Hwi" sort="Hong, Sung Hwi" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Sung Hwi" last="Hong">Sung Hwi Hong</name><name sortKey="Jeong, Gwang Hun" sort="Jeong, Gwang Hun" uniqKey="Jeong G" first="Gwang Hun" last="Jeong">Gwang Hun Jeong</name><name sortKey="Lee, Jinhee" sort="Lee, Jinhee" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jinhee" last="Lee">Jinhee Lee</name><name sortKey="Lee, Jun Young" sort="Lee, Jun Young" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jun Young" last="Lee">Jun Young Lee</name><name sortKey="Ryu, Seohyun" sort="Ryu, Seohyun" uniqKey="Ryu S" first="Seohyun" last="Ryu">Seohyun Ryu</name><name sortKey="Shinc, Jae Il" sort="Shinc, Jae Il" uniqKey="Shinc J" first="Jae Il" last="Shinc">Jae Il Shinc</name><name sortKey="Yang, Jae Won" sort="Yang, Jae Won" uniqKey="Yang J" first="Jae Won" last="Yang">Jae Won Yang</name><name sortKey="Yoon, Sojung" sort="Yoon, Sojung" uniqKey="Yoon S" first="Sojung" last="Yoon">Sojung Yoon</name></country><country name="Autriche"><noRegion><name sortKey="Effenberger, Maria" sort="Effenberger, Maria" uniqKey="Effenberger M" first="Maria" last="Effenberger">Maria Effenberger</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Kronbichler, Andreas" sort="Kronbichler, Andreas" uniqKey="Kronbichler A" first="Andreas" last="Kronbichler">Andreas Kronbichler</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Eisenhut, Michael" sort="Eisenhut, Michael" uniqKey="Eisenhut M" first="Michael" last="Eisenhut">Michael Eisenhut</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Smith, Lee" sort="Smith, Lee" uniqKey="Smith L" first="Lee" last="Smith">Lee Smith</name></country><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Solmi, Marco" sort="Solmi, Marco" uniqKey="Solmi M" first="Marco" last="Solmi">Marco Solmi</name></noRegion></country><country name="Espagne"><region name="Catalogne"><name sortKey="Jacob, Louis" sort="Jacob, Louis" uniqKey="Jacob L" first="Louis" last="Jacob">Louis Jacob</name></region><name sortKey="Koyanagi, Ai" sort="Koyanagi, Ai" uniqKey="Koyanagi A" first="Ai" last="Koyanagi">Ai Koyanagi</name></country><country name="Suède"><region name="Svealand"><name sortKey="Radua, Joaquim" sort="Radua, Joaquim" uniqKey="Radua J" first="Joaquim" last="Radua">Joaquim Radua</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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